2021 NBA Playoffs: Hawks vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 5 predictions from computer model on 100-66 roll

The 2021 NBA Playoffs continue on Thursday with the Atlanta Hawks traveling to Fiserv Forum to face the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s Game 5 of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals and the series is tied at 2-2. Atlanta evened the series with a dominant home win in Game 4 on Tuesday. Trae Young (knee) and Clint Capela (eye) are listed as questionable for the Hawks, with Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) won’t play for the Bucks. 

William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a three-point home favorite in its latest NBA odds today, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 215 in the latest Hawks vs. Bucks odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Hawks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Hawks vs. Bucks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks:

  • Hawks vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -3
  • Hawks vs. Bucks over-under: 215 points
  • Hawks vs. Bucks moneyline: Bucks -150, Hawks +130
  • ATL: The Hawks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta’s offense enjoyed real balance in Game 4, and that is a reminder of their roster talent. Lou Williams led the way with 21 points, but it took a village to generate the nearly 1.2 points per possession for the Hawks. Bogdan Bogdanovic found his stroke with six three-pointers. The return of Cam Reddish to the rotation gave the Hawks a top-tier wing defender and notably bothered the Bucks’ Khris Middleton.

The Hawks held the Bucks to 0.95 points per possession in their last game and, for the NBA Playoffs 2021, Atlanta’s defense rating (109.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) is far better than its regular season baseline. The Hawks excel at keeping opponents away from the free throw line and, in the series, the Bucks are generating a free throw rate of only 0.179. Milwaukee is also shooting under 70 percent at the stripe in the 2021 NBA Playoffs, and the Hawks are doing a strong job at bending the math in their favor by working well on the margins.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee has been the better statistical team during the series, out-scoring Atlanta by 5.1 points per 100 possessions. Much of that stems from their defense but, even with concerns over Antetokounmpo’s injury, the Bucks do have stars to carry the day. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are both high-profile perimeter players, with Middleton dominating to the tune of 38 points in Game 3. Middleton is putting up 21.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game in the series, with Holiday adding 20.0 points and 9.5 assists in his own right. 

As a team, the Bucks are generating 2.0 assists for every turnover against the Hawks, a strong ratio, and their perimeter shooting projects to improve when comparing their series totals to their full-season work. Finally, Milwaukee has dominated the offensive glass in the series, leading to efficient points. The Bucks are averaging 18.8 second-chance points per game against the Hawks and, on the whole, they are securing nearly 33 percent of the rebounds after their own missed shots through four games.

How to make Bucks vs. Hawks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Hawks vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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