It’s going to be a weird Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets, plus other best bets for Friday

Hello, and Happy Friday! I hope you’re reading this and getting ready to enjoy your holiday weekend. I’m more nervous than anything. Not because of the weekend, but because I’m awaiting the start of today’s Euro 2020 match between Italy and Belgium as I write this.

Italy has become the darling of the tournament, and many expect it to beat Belgium today since the Belgians are likely to be without two key players. All it does is make me fear something is going to go horribly wrong for my beloved Italy. Hopefully, you’re reading this after the Italians cruised to an easy victory. If they have, know that I’m happy and have probably had a beer or four to celebrate.

If they haven’t, well, at least I have these stories to distract me, as well as some bets to make tonight.

Now let’s all enjoy our holiday weekends. One great way to do that is to start it with some winners for tonight.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Mets at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Yankees (-153)
: I’m not sure how the rivalry works in New York when it comes to interleague play. I know that if it’s anything like it is in Chicago, fans of both teams spend a lot of time telling you how much they don’t care about it and then betray those words when the games begin. I imagine New York isn’t much different.

Regardless, when was the last time the Mets and Yankees met when the Mets were in first place and the Yankees were in fourth place? I mean, sure, it’s more a product of their respective divisions than anything, but it doesn’t make it any less accurate. It does make me want to bet the Yankees because I do see some value on the home favorites tonight.

The Mets have one of the worst offenses in baseball. They have a run rate (runs scored divided by plate appearances) of 10.08%, which ranks 29th of 30 teams, ahead of only the Pirates. They also rank 28th in OPS, 26th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+. Those are numbers we shouldn’t ignore when an NL team goes on the road in an interleague matchup, because the AL team will always have the built-in advantage of the DH.

On the pitching side of things, the Mets’ Taijuan Walker has better overall numbers than Jordan Montgomery, but he doesn’t miss many bats and allows a good number of fly balls. That’s not a great combination in Yankee Stadium.

Key Trend: The Mets are 1-5 in their last six as an underdog.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model just so happens to have an A-graded play on the spread in tonight’s game, as well as a solid lean on one side of the total.

💰 The Picks

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White Sox at Tigers, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+100) — 
The White Sox have been somewhat remarkable this season in that they seem to lose another key player to injury every day, yet they manage to keep winning. They enter tonight’s game with the fourth-best record in baseball and are tied with the Giants for the third-best run differential in baseball. So how have they done it? Well, by playing in a terrible division, mostly.

The White Sox are 48-32 overall, with a run differential of 95. Those numbers include 28 games against division rivals Minnesota, Kansas City and Detroit. In those 28 games, the White Sox are 22-6 with a run differential of 89. That means the Sox are 26-26 against everybody else with a run differential of 6.

Against Detroit, the Sox have gone 8-2 and outscored them by an average of 2.3 runs per game. Only two of the eight wins have come by a run, and the other six have been by an average of 5.8 runs. Two of those wins have come with Detroit starter Casey Mize on the mound, and he makes his third start against them tonight.

Key Trend: The White Sox are 17-3 against Detroit since the start of the 2020 season.

Red Sox at Athletics, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) — 
Oakland’s stadium has always been more pitcher-friendly, but there’s a significant difference in how the ball carries there at night compared to the day. During the day, the park ranks as the 23rd-best hitters park according to Statcast’s Park Factor, and at night it drops to 27th. The only park that’s more difficult to hit a home run in at night happens to be in San Francisco, as that marine layer coming in off the bay helps kill fly balls.

While tonight’s starting pitchers (Eduardo Rodriguez for Boston, Frankie Montas for Oakland) haven’t been great overall this season, home runs have hurt both. With dingers less likely tonight, it should benefit both, and since neither walks hitters at a high frequency, runs should be more difficult to come by.

Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in Oakland’s last seven games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Matt Severance has gone 15-6 in his last 21 money line plays involving the Tampa Bay Lightning, and he has a play available for tonight’s Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final against Montreal. Oh, and the Advanced Computer Model just so happens to agree with Matt.

💸 The DFS Rundown

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Top Three Starters

Value Starter

Today’s Top Stack

Value Hitter

⚽ Euro Parlay

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A little parlay for Saturday’s Euro action. Again, like yesterday, we are betting Denmark to advance, not on the 90-minute line. The England bet is a 90-minute bet, so the English need to beat Ukraine in a shutout in the regulation 90. The parlay pays +200.

  • Denmark to qualify (-175)
  • England to win to nil (-110)

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