Phillies vs. Padres odds, line: 2021 MLB picks, predictions for July 2 from proven computer model

The San Diego Padres travel cross-country to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the first game of a weekend series on Friday evening. San Diego (49-34) has the fourth-best record in the National League, but enters Friday’s game as the third-place team in the NL West. The Padres are doing everything they can to climb to the top of the division, as their 8-2 record in the past 10 games makes them one of the hottest teams in baseball. Meanwhile, the Phillies (37-41) have just a 3-7 record in the past 10 games but are still only 4.5 games out of first place in the NL East.

First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a -121 money line favorite (risk $121 to win $100) in the latest Padres vs. Phillies odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Padres picks, check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, had a banner 2019 season, the league’s last full schedule, returning more than $1,400 on its top-rated money-line and run-line MLB picks. It’s off to a sizzling start in 2021, going 107-81 on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 13 weeks, returning almost $1,000. Anyone following it has seen huge rewards.

Now, the model has dialed in on Padres vs. Phillies. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the MLB lines today and betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies:

  • Padres vs. Phillies money line: Philadelphia -121, San Diego +110
  • Padres vs. Phillies run-line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+160)
  • Padres vs. Phillies over-under: 8.5 runs
  • SD: The Padres have covered the spread 65 percent of the time when playing as an underdog 
  • PHI: The Phillies have the league’s ninth-best against-the-spread cover rate when playing in Citizens Bank Park

Featured Game | Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres

Why you should back the Phillies

Zack Wheeler has found a home in Philadelphia. The only pitcher who has been better than Wheeler since he became a member of the Phillies two years ago is the untouchable Jacob deGrom. The Phillies are 8-2 in Wheeler’s 10 most recent starts, and the only losses have come because they could provide only one and two runs of support. Wheeler’s 2.20 ERA is the second-best mark among MLB starting pitchers. 

Wheeler’s game has always been about inducing soft contact and ground balls at a high rate, and no pitcher has a lower opponent hard-hit rate over the past two seasons than him. He added a new layer to his game in 2021, though, inducing swinging strikes at a much higher rate and allowing contact at a career-low rate. Wheeler doesn’t typically ask for much run support, but Philadelphia’s lineup could spoil him if San Diego’s starting pitcher, Chris Paddack, doesn’t have his best stuff on Friday. Paddack gave up eight hits and five runs before being pulled in the third inning of his most recent start, pushing his ERA up to 4.64 on the year. 

Why you should back the Padres

Even though they have the intimidating left-handed bat of Bryce Harper, the Phillies have been one of the MLB’s worst teams against right-handed pitching in 2021. Philadelphia’s batting average vs. righties is the sixth-worst in MLB, its wOBA vs. right-handed pitching is the fifth-worst, and only two teams have a lower hard-hit rate against right-handers. They’ve won just one of their last seven games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Paddacks’ 4.64 ERA certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence, but his peripherals suggest that he has pitched much better than his ERA shows. He’s inducing swinging strikes at a career-best rate, which coincides with a career-low opponent contact rate, and his average fastball velocity is higher than we’ve seen it in his three years. Not only are opponents making contact less often, Paddack also is inducing ground balls at a career-high rate while allowing hard contact at a career-low rate.

How to make Padres vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the run total, projecting the teams to combine for 8.8 runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Phillies vs. Padres? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Padres vs. Phillies money line you need to jump on, all from the advanced model off to a hot start in 2021, and find out.

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